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Palantir ripped 11% in two sessions last week on a viral CEO rant. Michael Burry’s price target on the stock hasn’t moved: under $50 a share, about a third of where it trades today. Here’s his number, his math, and why insiders trading the stock seem to agree with him more than they agree with their own CEO.

What Is Michael Burry’s Price Target on Palantir?

Under $50 a share. That’s the number “Big Short” investor Michael Burry has attached to Palantir’s fundamental value, based on what he calls a 16-times premium of the stock’s price and its intrinsic worth. He’s backed it with real positioning: put options struck at $100, expiring December 2026, and at $50, expiring June 2027.

Burry isn’t a newcomer to this stock. He first disclosed a short against Palantir in November 2025, when Scion Asset Management’s 13F showed roughly $912 million in notional put exposure. CEO Alex Karp’s response at the time was to call the short “market manipulation” and “bats— crazy” on live TV. Burry didn’t back down. He’s since laid out, in detail, why he thinks Palantir functions like a linear consulting business dressed up in a software multiple, and why the company’s celebrated “Rule of 40” score leans on stock-based-compensation add-backs that flatter the real GAAP margin.

Has he softened at all? A little. In late June, disclosures showed Burry cut the short roughly in half and added some long-dated December 2028 call options alongside his remaining puts. That’s a partial de-risking, not a reversal — he still holds real downside exposure, and his stated price target hasn’t moved an inch.

Is Palantir Stock Overvalued?

At Monday’s mid-day price near $129-130, here’s what you’re actually paying for:

• Trailing P/E: roughly 135x
• Forward P/E: roughly 76x
• Price-to-sales (TTM): approximately 60x, using a ~$311 billion market cap against $5.22 billion in trailing-twelve-month revenue
• EV/EBITDA: approximately 140x
• Year-to-date performance: still down roughly 27%, even after last week’s rally, against Palantir’s December 31, 2025 close of $177.60

Here’s what makes the bear case harder than it sounds: Palantir posted its best growth quarter in company history last quarter. Revenue up 85% year-over-year. U.S. revenue crossed 100% growth for the first time. U.S. commercial revenue up 133%. Management raised full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter. This is not a broken business.

But the stock still fell nearly 6% the session after that report. Sit with that. A quarter that clean got sold. A CEO’s viral rant got bought. That’s not a market underappreciating a great company — that’s a stock trading on flow and narrative, which can reprice hard in either direction the moment sentiment turns.

Are Palantir Insiders Selling Stock?

Yes, and this is the part of the story that gets buried every time Karp makes headlines. Over a recent three-month stretch, Palantir insiders sold roughly nine shares for every one they bought — with zero offsetting open-market purchases. Director Peter Thiel offloaded more than 2 million shares in a single day in March, between $140.97 and $146.80. Karp himself sold $65.9 million of his own stock in February, between $132.01 and $135.73. More officer sales followed in May, in the $132.95-$136.61 range.

Think about what that means next to Palantir’s own pitch. The entire sales story — everything Karp argued on CNBC last week — is that Palantir is the shield standing between enterprises and AI disruption. If that pitch is as durable as the stock’s multiple assumes, the people who understand the business best should be buying it here, not distributing it into every rally. They’re doing the opposite, and Burry’s framework and the insider-selling data point in the same direction independently of each other.

Did Alex Karp’s CNBC Interview Change Anything?

Not the numbers above. Karp went on Squawk Box last Wednesday to talk about a real deal — Palantir and Nvidia expanding their “Sovereign AI Operating System” partnership, running Nvidia’s open-weight Nemotron models inside Palantir’s own stack for government and critical-infrastructure customers. Legitimate business, real extension of a partnership going back to last October.

That’s not what moved the stock. What moved it was 20 minutes of Karp ranting about “tokenmaxxing” and a “wealth tax” enterprises are supposedly paying to OpenAI and Anthropic, capped by his response to co-anchor Becky Quick’s “you sound pretty angry” — “No. This is the voice of American business that is being channeled through me.” Tell: Nvidia’s own stock barely moved on the actual news. If the partnership were driving the rally, both stocks would have reacted. Only Palantir did.

Karp’s done this exact thing before. November 2025, he called Burry’s short “bats— crazy” on the same network, and PLTR fell 8% that day anyway — despite beating earnings. Karp makes headlines. Headlines move this stock short-term. Burry’s price target and the insider-selling data haven’t budged either time.

The Palantir Trade Right Now

Not a new call. Members in the room have been running Palantir put spreads for weeks — closed for gains of 108% and 233% on August spreads, open positions marked past 115% before the stock bottomed at an intraday low of $106 on June 25th. We had sub-$100 as the near-term target before that move happened, built on the same valuation and insider-selling read sitting above, none of which last week’s rally changed. Palantir’s next earnings report lands August 10th — five weeks for the multiple to compress back toward reality, with Michael Burry and Palantir’s own insiders both still positioned for it.

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Palantir Stock FAQ

What is Michael Burry’s price target on Palantir?

Under $50 a share, based on a framework valuing the stock at roughly 16 times its intrinsic worth. His current positioning: puts struck at $100 (December 2026) and $50 (June 2027).

Has Michael Burry closed his Palantir short?

No. He cut the position roughly in half in late June and added some long-dated 2028 calls, but continues to hold real downside exposure and hasn’t moved off his price target.

Is Palantir (PLTR) stock overvalued?

By most traditional measures, yes — roughly 60x trailing sales and 135x trailing earnings at current prices. The counterargument is 85% revenue growth and 60% adjusted operating margins. Analyst targets range from a Street-low $70 to a high of $255, reflecting how contested this valuation debate is on Wall Street right now.

Are Palantir insiders selling stock?

Yes. Over a recent three-month period, insiders sold roughly nine shares for every one they bought, with zero offsetting purchases. Peter Thiel sold more than 2 million shares in March; Karp sold $65.9 million in February; more officer sales followed in May.

Why did Alex Karp go on CNBC?

Officially, to discuss Palantir’s Nvidia partnership. The interview became known instead for Karp’s extended rant about OpenAI and Anthropic’s token-pricing model.

Is Palantir stock down or up in 2026?

Down roughly 27%, even after last week’s rally, against its December 31, 2025 close of $177.60.

When does Palantir report earnings next?

Monday, August 10, 2026, after market close.

Michael Burry isn’t buying this rally. Neither are Palantir’s own insiders. A viral clip is not a valuation case, and until Palantir’s next print on August 10th, nothing about the math above has actually changed.

This article reflects the views of Jonathan Rose, founder of Masters in Trading, a 28-year veteran of the CBOE and CME/CBOT trading floors.

Valuation figures are calculated from current share price against trailing-twelve-month revenue and earnings as of Palantir’s Q1 2026 report (period ended March 31, 2026) and will shift with the stock price and Palantir’s Q2 2026 earnings, expected August 10, 2026. Last updated July 6, 2026.