Trading with Larry Live

📍 In this episode: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov examine a market at all-time highs while a geopolitical powder keg sits in the background. With JD Vance's plane still on the ground, an Iran ceasefire deadline looming, and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, Larry and Eric debate whether the S&P's 13-day winning streak is a rational trade or a full-blown casino driven by retail FOMO. Larry gives his unfiltered take on Trump's CNBC appearance, tears apart the "greatest deal of all time" narrative, and makes the case that the market is dangerously ignoring the reality on the ground. They also dig into who controls the Fed, Tesla's surprising lag in the Mag 7, whether gold is due for a major reversal, and Larry's prediction markets product in beta. 🕒 Timestamps: 2:00 - Welcome & Today's Big Bet 3:00 - Prediction Markets: The New Edge 4:55 - Trump on CNBC: Real Talk or Reality TV? 10:00 - The Stock Market Is a Casino — Period 12:13 - Amazon's $100B Deal Nobody Noticed 13:46 - Can Trump Actually Control the Fed? 16:17 - The Same Broken Record, Every Single Day 17:10 - Will Vance Board That Plane? 20:13 - Iron Condor Recap & Today's Setup 24:14 - S&P at All-Time Highs — Are You Kidding Me? 27:33 - The Market Doesn't Care 29:29 - Nasdaq Key Level to Watch Right Now 30:32 - 14-Day Win Streak: Where's the Profit Taking? 33:38 - Earnings Season Is a Mess 37:52 - Hedge Funds, CTAs, and the FOMO Stampede 41:59 - Retail Traders and the New Casino 43:14 - Larry's Trade Positioning 46:27 - Where Is Marco Rubio? 48:19 - Is Gold a Massive Short Right Now? 50:17 - Gold vs. S&P: The Numbers Don't Lie 51:00 - Trump's Tariff Threat Sounds Like the Mob 51:30 - Final Trade Strategy Before the Open 55:14 - Good Luck Out There 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

📍 In this episode: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov open with a deep dive into the Avis short squeeze — drawing direct parallels to the legendary Volkswagen corner — and explain exactly why Hertz can't be squeezed the same way. From there, Larry makes the case that Trump is actively moving markets with fabricated Iran deal headlines, calling it what it is: market manipulation on a presidential scale. The duo dissects China's covert role in bankrolling Iran, why the Strait of Hormuz remains a powder keg regardless of ceasefire extensions, and why oil is quietly setting up for a run back above $100 — even if a deal gets done. They also weigh in on Tesla earnings ahead of the bell, why Larry thinks Elon Musk's real focus is the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and why he has zero interest in Bitcoin at current levels. 🕒 Timestamps: 3:42 - The Avis Short Squeeze Nobody Saw Coming 9:53 - Is Someone Running the Market? 13:44 - China's Dirty Secret in the Iran Standoff 18:09 - Trump's Billions: Is This Un-American? 22:14 - Fake Headlines, Real Moves — The Taco Trade Exposed 27:17 - War Back On? Mapping Today's Market Scenarios 32:41 - Oil: Why a Peace Deal Might Not Drop the Price 36:48 - Bitcoin & Tesla: Larry's Honest Take 41:39 - The Next Three Weeks: Brace for Algo Chaos 46:58 - Iron Condors vs. Straddles — Which One Wins Today? 55:27 - Oil Setup & What to Watch at the Close 57:30 - SpaceX IPO, New Products & What's Coming Next 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

📍 In this episode: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov debate a historic run in the Nasdaq. With VIX inexplicably spiking 10% on a nearly flat market, oil surging 7% overnight, and the Strait of Hormuz closed again, the two dig into why the market is shrugging off every geopolitical risk signal and pricing in utter perfection. The conversation also covers the mechanics of how market makers are running in front of retail and institutional order flow to fuel the feedback loop, a fascinating theory connecting Iran's bitcoin mining to BTC's recent price action, and what Kevin Warsh's potential Fed chairmanship could mean for the dot plot and forward guidance. 🕒 Timestamps: 3:43 - VIX Up 10% on a Flat Market 4:58 - Historic Nasdaq Streak 6:01 - The Iran Deal: Smoke, Mirrors, and Sweeteners 9:07 - Market Pricing in Utter Perfection 9:36 - Oil Up 7% and Nobody Cares? 12:50 - Insider Trading, Poly Market & the Administration 15:03 - "The Market Is Off Its Meds" 17:29 - The $80 Oil Floor — Will It Hold? 20:33 - The Psychology Shift Driving This Rally 22:36 - The Sickest Move Larry Has Seen in 40 Years 26:12 - The $38 Straddle 27:09 - Gold and the S&P: Same Trade? 29:41 - Larry's First Short of the Whole Move 32:09 - How Market Makers Are Front Running Your Orders 35:34 - Why Larry Won't Put a Trade On 44:27 - Panicked Texts Two Weeks Ago vs. Euphoria Today 47:52 - Kevin Warsh, the Dot Plot & the Future of the Fed 52:29 - Strait of Hormuz: Open, Closed, or Does Anyone Care? 54:26 - Bitcoin's Surprising Iran Connection 56:26 - Final Word: Sell the Straddle or Sit This One Out? 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

📍 In this episode: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov discuss a 12-day straight-up Nasdaq rally that has shattered records, crushed hedge funds, and sent straddle prices to historic lows – all while $100 crude oil is ignored and the Iran situation remains unresolved. They break down "air pockets" in the S&P chart, and Eric makes the case for Tesla and points to the elimination of the $25K day trading rule as a structural shift fueling retail speculation. The two also go deep on the Iran nuclear deal debate, posing the question nobody in the market seems to be asking: Even if a deal gets signed before Monday's ceasefire deadline, how on earth do you enforce it? 🕒 Timestamps: 2:00 - 12 Days Straight Up 3:05 - The Retail Death Spiral Reversal 4:44 - Fake Headlines, Real Moves 7:37 - Waiting for the Market to Turn Red 9:23 - Air Pockets Everywhere 12:51 - Nvidia Up 25% in 11 Days 14:47 - $100 Crude for 7 Weeks and Nobody Cares 16:40 - Market Overreactions Are Bigger Than Ever Before 20:39 - The $25K Day Trading Rule Is Dead 22:32 - Tesla's Secret Weapon 24:32 - Hedge Funds Got Wrecked 27:32 - Fear Is Completely Dead 28:55 - If Iran Signs a Deal Tomorrow, Can We Even Enforce It? 30:21 - Trump and the Art of the Fake Deal 36:04 - Gold Just Broke Off the Algorithm 38:12 - Selling Call Spreads Around 7060 43:07 - The Blockade Play 48:15 - A 12-Day Nasdaq Record 49:12 - Monday Deadline: Ceasefire or More Headlines? 52:46 - Short Nasdaq, Long Gold 54:33 - Don't Chase Tesla on a Pullback 56:29 - Closing Bell: Follow Larry's Trades Daily 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

📍 In this episode: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov dissect eleven straight up days in the Nasdaq and a volatility collapse. Larry calls it like it is: The greater fool theory is in full effect. Larry and Eric go head-to-head on whether oil at $90 makes any sense when zero ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, dig into why Nvidia adding $1 trillion in market cap in nine days is an overshoot, and lay out a specific short trigger Larry is watching for in real time. They also tackle the question nobody can answer: If both sides want an Iran deal so badly, why isn't there one? 🕒 Timestamps: 2:00 - 11 Days Up and Nobody's Selling 3:03 - CTAs Are Buying — Until They Get Crushed 4:32 - Greater Fool Theory: Activated 5:26 - The Iran "Deal" Is a Lie 7:32 - Oil vs. S&P: What's More Mispriced? 10:33 - The "Touchdown" Market Indicator 11:24 - The Bull Market Secret: Nobody Sells 13:25 - AI Headlines Are Back — Pay Attention 15:37 - Ackman & El-Erian Don't Even Trade 19:55 - Back to January Levels 20:51 - Nvidia Adds $1 Trillion in 9 Days 22:12 - When Economic Data Doesn't Add Up 24:26 - FOMO Nation: Who's Buying on Day 10? 29:26 - Can Nvidia's Earnings Top Last Quarter? 30:29 - Why Is Oil at $90 With the Strait Closed? 31:06 - LNG: The Overlooked Energy Play 32:41 - Market Buys Every Trump Headline 34:15 - Why Did We Really Go Into Iran? 37:44 - If Both Sides Want a Deal, Why Don't We Have One? 42:03 - Is Trading Dead for 3 Weeks? 44:43 - What Is a CTA? 48:40 - Larry's Short Trigger: The Game Plan 52:47 - Russia Fills the Oil Gap for China 54:37 - The Market Was Already Heading Lower 57:16 - Now They're Buying Bad News Too 58:25 - "Iran Wants a Deal" 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

📍 In this episode: Clint Brewer and Eric Shamilov take the helm for a packed episode on one of the most confusing market rallies in recent memory. They break down why stocks are within striking distance of all-time highs even as oil holds stubbornly above $96 — and make the case that the real fuel behind the move isn't Iran ceasefire optimism. Eric flags a critical warning sign that CNBC anchors are brushing past inflation... and notes trouble ahead for the AI trade. Clint breaks down why the AI trade is no longer one trade at all, and they debate whether the sell-off in names like Palantir is being quietly fueled by forced liquidation out of private credit portfolios. They also dig into why the breadth on this rally looks nothing like last April's trade-war rebound, what the Nasdaq-S&P spread is telegraphing about institutional conviction, and how they're planning to trade against the retail FOMO thrust at 9:30. 🕒 Timestamps: 2:00 - Markets Near All-Time Highs — What's Driving It? 3:07 - Iran Ceasefire Talks: Deal or Spin? 5:28 - Did the U.S. Take Control of the Strait? 7:34 - The REAL Reason Markets Rallied 10:24 - CNBC Is Frothy — That's a Warning Sign 12:03 - Oil at $96 While Stocks Rip: Does That Add Up? 13:41 - Tesla, Micron & the Trade to Watch Right Now 15:30 - Is It Time to Short Palantir? 15:50 - The AI Trade Is Split 18:15 - The Software ETF Chart That Called This Move 20:50 - Private Credit's Hidden Role 24:01 - Institutions Aren't Buying 26:10 - What Is a Breadth Thrust and Why Does It Matter? 28:33 - The Nasdaq vs. S&P Spread That Has Clint Worried 30:54 - Bonds, Gold & Stocks Are All the Same Trade 33:13 - Is Gold Headed to $5,000? 35:25 - Why Space Stocks Are Ignoring the Market Chaos 37:14 - What Druckenmiller Gets About Trading Confidence 38:43 - Is the SpaceX IPO Lifting the Sector? 41:26 - Today's S&P Setup: Straddle Pricing & Key Levels 42:48 - How to Fade the FOMO 46:10 - S&P Chart: Where Support and Resistance Live 48:35 - JPMorgan Earnings: What the Banks Are Really Saying 50:23 - Why Earnings Season Is Getting Drowned Out 51:58 - Don't Chase This Rally 👤About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]