Trading with Larry Live

Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov break down why Fed funds odds are swinging wildly under a new, unpredictable Fed chair on Trading With Larry Live. On August 13, 2026, Larry and Eric explain why Fed funds futures moved 30% in a single day off one comment. New Fed Chair Warsh is pushing a data-quality review of an August inflation report that showed 3.4% year-over-year CPI, even as Larry says real-world costs like airline fares have roughly tripled in six months. KEY QUESTIONS Q: Why are Fed funds odds swinging 30% in a single day right now? A: Larry Benedict says new Fed Chair Warsh has no track record for the market to price off, unlike prior chairs who signaled decisions meeting by meeting, so rate-hike odds that stood near 40% one session fell to about 32% the next off a single comment. Q: Why is the VIX sitting at a one-year low even with the S&P at record highs? A: Larry Benedict says it's not because anyone is selling puts. Clearing firms won't let traders sell them unless they can cover roughly a 15% market drop, so almost nobody can. He says the real driver is that market makers won't buy puts either, so the public ends up only buying calls, which pulls the print lower. Q: Does the August CPI/PPI report change the Fed's next move? A: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov say no. The report showed 3.4% year-over-year CPI, but Larry points to airline fares he says have roughly tripled versus six months ago as evidence the official numbers don't match what people are actually paying. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 13, 2026: VIX near 14 (one-year range 13.80-37); S&P 500 at all-time highs; bond yield near 4.65%; crude oil in the $80s; Bitcoin near $63,000; Fed funds rate-hike odds near 32%, down from 40% the prior session. CHAPTERS 0:00 Overnight Tape Sets Up Today's PPI Reaction 4:45 Airline Prices Triple While Fed Chair Warsh Doubts the Data 6:47 Volatility Hits a One-Year Low 8:11 The Trader Liquidation Driving This Rally 10:39 An Options Setup That Mirrors a Prior Warning Sign 12:41 Why Market Makers Won't Buy Puts Right Now 20:03 The SpaceX Short and Today's Options Levels 22:21 Fed Funds Odds Swing 30% in a Day Under a New Fed Chair 25:19 Why Rate Hikes and Cuts Might Not Matter Anymore 28:19 Why No One Is Selling This Rally 34:12 Four Days Without a Down Day WATCH NEXT Nothing Is Moving This Market Anymore: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG4tvDxhRl4 A Fed Divide Could Blindside Markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOevITFHr9c Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #FedFunds #VolatilityTrading #VIX ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/ YouTube Video VVU0RmE4M21hRkpEY0M2eHZ6QjhWT2F3LnpNdDNpLTE1ZE84

August 14, 2026

A Fed Bet Nobody Can Read

Energy Could Be Setting Up Again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1f6P_loqsM Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #CPIReport #FedRateHike #OilPrices ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire...

Video Archive

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Options market makers won't buy puts right now, and it's not because anyone is selling them. Larry Benedict walks through the exact rule keeping sellers locked out of the market, and why it's dragging implied volatility lower for reasons that have nothing to do with conviction. Q: Why won't market makers buy puts even with volatility already this low? A: Larry Benedict says it comes down to a specific risk threshold almost nobody can clear, not a lack of interest in selling. Watch the full episode: https://youtube.com/live/zMt3i-15dO8 #OptionsTrading #VolatilityTrading #RiskManagement ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

August 13, 2026

How Options Market Makers Read Risk

Options market makers won't buy puts right now, and it's not because anyone is selling them. Larry Benedict walks through the exact rule keeping sellers locked out of the market, and why it's dragging implied volatility lower for reasons that have nothing to do with conviction. Q: Why won't market makers buy puts even with volatility already this low? A: Larry Benedict says it comes down to a specific risk threshold almost nobody can clear, not a lack of interest in selling. Watch the full episode: https://youtube.com/live/zMt3i-15dO8 #OptionsTrading #VolatilityTrading #RiskManagement ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Larry Benedict says the market got today's CPI report wrong, even as oil prices climb back higher, on Trading With Larry Live. Recorded August 12, 2026, Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov break down a CPI print that came in at 3.4%. Oil fell at least 25% during that reading period, and has since climbed back higher. The hosts also debate a big overnight jump in Fed rate-hike odds, from 50-50 to 58%, and flag Bitcoin's downside risk near $45,000 if stocks turn lower. KEY QUESTIONS Why does Larry Benedict think the market misread today's CPI report? Larry says the CPI print looks fine at 3.4%. But oil fell at least 25% during the reading period and has since climbed back higher. He expects that to show up as a fresh inflation uptick in future reports. How much did Fed rate-hike odds move after the CPI report? Larry says futures-implied odds of a Fed rate hike were roughly 50-50 the day before the report. Eric corrects him: they sit at 58% after the report. Larry calls the jump "a pretty interesting, scary scenario." Why does Larry Benedict say popular chart levels stop working? Larry tells Eric that once a support or resistance level is widely known, it stops working in a vacuum, in his experience. Eric flags a point of control at 7,775 on the ES as today's key level. The two disagree over whether that kind of level still holds up. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 12, 2026: CPI at 3.4%; futures-implied Fed rate-hike odds at 58%; ES point-of-control support at 7,775; Bitcoin near $63,000. CHAPTERS 0:00 The CPI Number the Market Got Wrong 8:26 How Larry and Clint Cashed In on Kalshi's CPI Bet 11:35 The Fed Rate-Hike Odds Jump Overnight 12:51 Reading SPX Options for a CPI Fade 14:50 Is a Rug Pull Coming After the CPI Pop? 20:55 The ES Point of Control Traders Are Watching 22:45 Why Crowded Chart Levels Stop Working 24:40 The Down-300 Day Nobody's Prepared For 27:10 How Deep the AI Trade Runs Through the Market 28:30 What $200 AI Landscaping Says About Jobs 30:03 Gold, Silver, and Larry's Vanishing Trade 31:55 Could Bitcoin Trade Back Below 50,000? 34:58 Currencies and Dollar Strength Into the Close Watch Next A Fed Divide Could Blindside Markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOevITFHr9c Energy Could Be Setting Up Again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1f6P_loqsM Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #CPIReport #FedRateHike #OilPrices ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

August 13, 2026

Inflation's Next Read Could Surprise

Larry Benedict says the market got today's CPI report wrong, even as oil prices climb back higher, on Trading With Larry Live. Recorded August 12, 2026, Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov break down a CPI print that came in at 3.4%. Oil fell at least 25% during that reading period, and has since climbed back higher. The hosts also debate a big overnight jump in Fed rate-hike odds, from 50-50 to 58%, and flag Bitcoin's downside risk near $45,000 if stocks turn lower. KEY QUESTIONS Why does Larry Benedict think the market misread today's CPI report? Larry says the CPI print looks fine at 3.4%. But oil fell at least 25% during the reading period and has since climbed back higher. He expects that to show up as a fresh inflation uptick in future reports. How much did Fed rate-hike odds move after the CPI report? Larry says futures-implied odds of a Fed rate hike were roughly 50-50 the day before the report. Eric corrects him: they sit at 58% after the report. Larry calls the jump "a pretty interesting, scary scenario." Why does Larry Benedict say popular chart levels stop working? Larry tells Eric that once a support or resistance level is widely known, it stops working in a vacuum, in his experience. Eric flags a point of control at 7,775 on the ES as today's key level. The two disagree over whether that kind of level still holds up. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 12, 2026: CPI at 3.4%; futures-implied Fed rate-hike odds at 58%; ES point-of-control support at 7,775; Bitcoin near $63,000. CHAPTERS 0:00 The CPI Number the Market Got Wrong 8:26 How Larry and Clint Cashed In on Kalshi's CPI Bet 11:35 The Fed Rate-Hike Odds Jump Overnight 12:51 Reading SPX Options for a CPI Fade 14:50 Is a Rug Pull Coming After the CPI Pop? 20:55 The ES Point of Control Traders Are Watching 22:45 Why Crowded Chart Levels Stop Working 24:40 The Down-300 Day Nobody's Prepared For 27:10 How Deep the AI Trade Runs Through the Market 28:30 What $200 AI Landscaping Says About Jobs 30:03 Gold, Silver, and Larry's Vanishing Trade 31:55 Could Bitcoin Trade Back Below 50,000? 34:58 Currencies and Dollar Strength Into the Close Watch Next A Fed Divide Could Blindside Markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOevITFHr9c Energy Could Be Setting Up Again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1f6P_loqsM Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #CPIReport #FedRateHike #OilPrices ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Clint Brewer says the energy sector could be setting up for another move higher on Trading With Larry Live. On August 11, 2026, Eric Shamilov and Clint Brewer cover a market still consolidating ahead of the August 12 CPI report, walk through a technical read on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Apple, break down why Japan can only defend the yen for so long, and push back on Wall Street's pitch that computing power is now its own asset class. KEY QUESTIONS What makes Clint Brewer think energy stocks could be setting up again? Clint Brewer points to the global energy ETF IXC testing its 50-day moving average and what he thinks may be an inverse head-and-shoulders forming, with the broader energy trade already sharply higher on the year, and says the sector could be building toward another move higher. Why can Japan only defend the yen for so long, according to Eric Shamilov? Eric Shamilov says a country has unlimited capacity to weaken its own currency but limited reserves to strengthen it, pointing to Japanese officials repeatedly stepping in whenever the yen nears the 160 level against the dollar. What does the IPO research Clint Brewer cites say about stocks like SpaceX after they go public? Citing Truist Research's study of blockbuster IPOs, Clint Brewer says the median and average drawdown within the first 12 months runs around 50% to 55% — a pattern he says SpaceX has already tracked since its 2026 debut. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: XLE up over 40% year-to-date; Marathon Petroleum (MPC) near $310 after a 20-point single-day move; SpaceX back near its $135 IPO price after falling from about $200 to $100 in 2026; USD/JPY near 155, with Japanese officials intervening whenever it nears 160; CPI due August 12, 2026 with year-over-year expected near 3.3%. CHAPTERS 0:00 S&P Consolidation Ahead of CPI 3:43 Is Compute Really a New Asset Class? 6:24 SpaceX Options Activity and IPO Drawdown Risk 10:46 Apple's Bollinger Band Setup 14:10 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Trade Update 16:33 Gold: Bearish Bias as Dollar Strength Builds 18:29 Energy Setup: XLE and IXC Breakout Watch 20:40 Treasury Yields: TLT Breakdown Confirmed 23:12 Yen Intervention and Currency Ammo 27:49 CPI Preview for Tomorrow 28:26 Trading on Probability, Not Certainty 31:30 Intraday Setup Into the Close WATCH NEXT Oil Pullback After Ceasefire News: Buy the Dip or Warning Sign?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6WCdkuV9IM Oil at $103 and the Fed's Big Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfVSlT_dcp4 Oil, Energy & Geopolitics: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVE2294OB3rs #LarryBenedict #EnergyStocks #SpaceXStock #CPIReport ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

August 12, 2026

Energy Could Be Setting Up Again

Clint Brewer says the energy sector could be setting up for another move higher on Trading With Larry Live. On August 11, 2026, Eric Shamilov and Clint Brewer cover a market still consolidating ahead of the August 12 CPI report, walk through a technical read on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Apple, break down why Japan can only defend the yen for so long, and push back on Wall Street's pitch that computing power is now its own asset class. KEY QUESTIONS What makes Clint Brewer think energy stocks could be setting up again? Clint Brewer points to the global energy ETF IXC testing its 50-day moving average and what he thinks may be an inverse head-and-shoulders forming, with the broader energy trade already sharply higher on the year, and says the sector could be building toward another move higher. Why can Japan only defend the yen for so long, according to Eric Shamilov? Eric Shamilov says a country has unlimited capacity to weaken its own currency but limited reserves to strengthen it, pointing to Japanese officials repeatedly stepping in whenever the yen nears the 160 level against the dollar. What does the IPO research Clint Brewer cites say about stocks like SpaceX after they go public? Citing Truist Research's study of blockbuster IPOs, Clint Brewer says the median and average drawdown within the first 12 months runs around 50% to 55% — a pattern he says SpaceX has already tracked since its 2026 debut. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: XLE up over 40% year-to-date; Marathon Petroleum (MPC) near $310 after a 20-point single-day move; SpaceX back near its $135 IPO price after falling from about $200 to $100 in 2026; USD/JPY near 155, with Japanese officials intervening whenever it nears 160; CPI due August 12, 2026 with year-over-year expected near 3.3%. CHAPTERS 0:00 S&P Consolidation Ahead of CPI 3:43 Is Compute Really a New Asset Class? 6:24 SpaceX Options Activity and IPO Drawdown Risk 10:46 Apple's Bollinger Band Setup 14:10 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Trade Update 16:33 Gold: Bearish Bias as Dollar Strength Builds 18:29 Energy Setup: XLE and IXC Breakout Watch 20:40 Treasury Yields: TLT Breakdown Confirmed 23:12 Yen Intervention and Currency Ammo 27:49 CPI Preview for Tomorrow 28:26 Trading on Probability, Not Certainty 31:30 Intraday Setup Into the Close WATCH NEXT Oil Pullback After Ceasefire News: Buy the Dip or Warning Sign?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6WCdkuV9IM Oil at $103 and the Fed's Big Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfVSlT_dcp4 Oil, Energy & Geopolitics: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVE2294OB3rs #LarryBenedict #EnergyStocks #SpaceXStock #CPIReport ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Clint Brewer breaks down why every hype cycle — from Nvidia's compute pitch to SpaceX's IPO frenzy — follows the same script. He points to Truist Research's data on blockbuster IPOs to show why the excitement always fades, and where the real risk sits once financial conditions tighten. Why do blockbuster IPOs almost always fall in the first year? Clint Brewer cites Truist Research's study of 30 blockbuster IPOs, which found the median and average drawdown within the first 12 months runs around 50% to 55% — a pattern SpaceX has already tracked since its 2026 debut. Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1f6P_loqsM #TradingPsychology #IPOStocks #TradingWithLarryLive ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/ Tags: TradingPsychology, IPOStocks, TradingWithLarryLive

August 11, 2026

The Warning Signs Inside Every Market Mania

Clint Brewer breaks down why every hype cycle — from Nvidia's compute pitch to SpaceX's IPO frenzy — follows the same script. He points to Truist Research's data on blockbuster IPOs to show why the excitement always fades, and where the real risk sits once financial conditions tighten. Why do blockbuster IPOs almost always fall in the first year? Clint Brewer cites Truist Research's study of 30 blockbuster IPOs, which found the median and average drawdown within the first 12 months runs around 50% to 55% — a pattern SpaceX has already tracked since its 2026 debut. Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1f6P_loqsM #TradingPsychology #IPOStocks #TradingWithLarryLive ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/ Tags: TradingPsychology, IPOStocks, TradingWithLarryLive

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing to raise rates while his committee blocks him. Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov report on Trading With Larry Live. On August 10, 2026, Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov walk through a market that keeps shrugging off its own warning signs: the 10-year yield near 4.70%, gold above $4,300 an ounce, oil near $80 a barrel, and a yen intervention that has USD/JPY back close to 160. KEY QUESTIONS Is the Federal Reserve divided over raising interest rates? Larry Benedict says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to hike and sees inflation running too hot, but a resistant committee faction the hosts nickname "Powell and his knuckleheads" isn't ready to move, leaving the vote stalled as of August 10, 2026. What does the yen intervention mean for the carry trade? Larry Benedict says the intervention pulled USD/JPY from roughly 163 down to a 157 low and back near 160 by August 10, 2026, and calls it a token move that could leave the carry trade unsupported if the U.S. steps away. Why did a hedge fund get liquidated on four-to-one leverage? Larry Benedict says JPMorgan and Goldman gave a major hedge fund four-to-one leverage. The firms then forced a liquidation in early August 2026. Citadel ended up buying the position, and Larry calls it the most orchestrated setup he has seen in his trading career. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70%; 30-year Treasury yield near 5.20%; oil near $80 a barrel; EUR/USD near 1.15; USD/JPY near 160; gold near $4,300 an ounce. CHAPTERS 0:00 Macro Monday: What's Really Moving Markets 4:30 Gold Rally: The Dollar and Yield Curve Case 5:59 Oil Fair Value Near $80 a Barrel 8:50 Iran Dictates Terms as the Peace Deal Stalls 10:33 Yen Intervention and the Carry Trade Risk 12:08 Payment for Order Flow Under Fire 13:42 Netanyahu Breaks From Washington on the Hamas Deal 21:10 Hedge Fund Leverage: Four-to-One and a Forced Liquidation 23:54 Fed Rate-Hike Odds Cut in Half on Weak Jobs Data 26:08 A Fed Divide: Warsh vs. His Own Committee 30:05 S&P Technical Setup: Support Levels in Play 32:24 SpaceX and Oracle Price Levels Into the Open 33:22 CPI and PPI Loom Large This Week WATCH NEXT Massive Leverage Is Setting Up a Crash: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fj4IVd8wU0 Is the Kevin Warsh Honeymoon Over? Fed Policy and Market Reaction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaPlGd9PaOI Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #FedRateHike #GoldPrice #YenCarryTrade ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

August 11, 2026

A Fed Divide Could Blindside Markets

📈️3 Ways to Trade Smarter With Larry 1. Watch Larry’s Show LIVE + Get Daily Emails (Free) Access Trading With Larry Live at 8:30 a.m. ET before the market opens, plus get premarket insights by email every weekday. GET LIVE ACCESS AND FREE INSIGHTS NOW: https://www.tradingwithlarry.com/ 2. Get Larry’s Trade Setups! Get Larry’s trade recommendations, exclusive Friday “Ask Me Anything” sessions, his step-by-step options guide, and more with his One Ticker Trader advisory service. GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW: https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 3. Subscribe on YouTube Like, subscribe, and hit the bell 🔔 to get Larry’s daily trading videos and bonus clips. https://www.youtube.com/@opportunistictrader?sub_confirmation=1 👤 About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 - Email: [email protected] - Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]

Legendary Market Wizard Reveals His Next Move Larry Benedict went 12 for 12 in Q1 2025 with his time-tested “One Ticker” strategy. Want to see the next trade setup before the bell? 👉 GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 📈 Watch Larry’s Trading Breakdown Every Market Morning Join 40-year trading veteran Larry Benedict as he breaks down what’s really driving today’s markets — plus the one ticker he’s watching right now. 📍 In this episode: In this Thursday episode, host Larry and his co-host dive into market trends, trading strategies, and the looming impact of tariffs on supply chains. They break down a quiet trading day, Boeing’s overhyped order, and macro factors like bond yields and supply shocks. Political rants about Trump’s deals add spice, alongside practical trading tips for the day. 0:00 - Welcome to Larry’s Trading World 1:54 - Iron Condor Wins Quiet Day 3:26 - Bloomberg Over CNBC Any Day 5:01 - Light Volumes, Big Imbalances 7:36 - Tariffs Dull Economic Buzz 9:50 - Trump’s Shady Deal Dance 13:55 - Tariffs Choke Supply Chains 17:53 - Trump’s Transaction Obsession 20:17 - Election Blunders Fuel Trump 24:35 - Crash and Rebound Madness 28:06 - Empty Ships, Gold Swings 32:25 - Japan’s Bond Yield Shock 36:08 - 1987 Crash Risk Lessons 39:06 - Euro Bets, Crude Stalls 43:31 - Gold Moves, Bitcoin Flops 49:12 - Equities on Dec. 50:56 - Pivot Point Trading Call 🛠️ 3 Ways to Trade Smarter With Larry 1. Get Larry’s Trade Setups! Get Larry’s trade recommendations, exclusive Friday “Ask Me Anything” sessions, his step-by-step options guide, and more with his One Ticker Trader advisory service. 🔥 12 for 12 in Q1 2025 — real wins, real traders. 👉 GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 2. Watch Larry’s Show Live + Get Daily Emails (Free) Access Trading With Larry Live at 8:30 a.m. ET before the market opens, plus get premarket insights by email every weekday. 👉 GET LIVE ACCESS AND FREE INSIGHTS NOW https://www.tradingwithlarry.com/ 3. Subscribe on YouTube Like, subscribe, and hit the bell 🔔 to get Larry’s daily trading videos and bonus clips. 👉 https://www.youtube.com/@opportunistictrader?sub_confirmation=1 👤 About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns now helps everyday traders profit through chaos with hedge-fund level insights, strategies, and real trade recommendations. 🚨 SPECIAL OFFER FOR TRADING WITH LARRY LIVE LISTENERS 🚨 👉 LOCK IN YOUR DISCOUNT NOW: https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 📢 Stay Connected 📢 - Email: feedback@opportunistictrader.com - Website: https://www.tradingwithlarry.com #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at memberservices@opportunistictrader.com

August 10, 2026

Boeing's Overhyped Order

Legendary Market Wizard Reveals His Next Move Larry Benedict went 12 for 12 in Q1 2025 with his time-tested “One Ticker” strategy. Want to see the next trade setup before the bell? 👉 GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 📈 Watch Larry’s Trading Breakdown Every Market Morning Join 40-year trading veteran Larry Benedict as he breaks down what’s really driving today’s markets — plus the one ticker he’s watching right now. 📍 In this episode: In this Thursday episode, host Larry and his co-host dive into market trends, trading strategies, and the looming impact of tariffs on supply chains. They break down a quiet trading day, Boeing’s overhyped order, and macro factors like bond yields and supply shocks. Political rants about Trump’s deals add spice, alongside practical trading tips for the day. 0:00 - Welcome to Larry’s Trading World 1:54 - Iron Condor Wins Quiet Day 3:26 - Bloomberg Over CNBC Any Day 5:01 - Light Volumes, Big Imbalances 7:36 - Tariffs Dull Economic Buzz 9:50 - Trump’s Shady Deal Dance 13:55 - Tariffs Choke Supply Chains 17:53 - Trump’s Transaction Obsession 20:17 - Election Blunders Fuel Trump 24:35 - Crash and Rebound Madness 28:06 - Empty Ships, Gold Swings 32:25 - Japan’s Bond Yield Shock 36:08 - 1987 Crash Risk Lessons 39:06 - Euro Bets, Crude Stalls 43:31 - Gold Moves, Bitcoin Flops 49:12 - Equities on Dec. 50:56 - Pivot Point Trading Call 🛠️ 3 Ways to Trade Smarter With Larry 1. Get Larry’s Trade Setups! Get Larry’s trade recommendations, exclusive Friday “Ask Me Anything” sessions, his step-by-step options guide, and more with his One Ticker Trader advisory service. 🔥 12 for 12 in Q1 2025 — real wins, real traders. 👉 GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 2. Watch Larry’s Show Live + Get Daily Emails (Free) Access Trading With Larry Live at 8:30 a.m. ET before the market opens, plus get premarket insights by email every weekday. 👉 GET LIVE ACCESS AND FREE INSIGHTS NOW https://www.tradingwithlarry.com/ 3. Subscribe on YouTube Like, subscribe, and hit the bell 🔔 to get Larry’s daily trading videos and bonus clips. 👉 https://www.youtube.com/@opportunistictrader?sub_confirmation=1 👤 About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns now helps everyday traders profit through chaos with hedge-fund level insights, strategies, and real trade recommendations. 🚨 SPECIAL OFFER FOR TRADING WITH LARRY LIVE LISTENERS 🚨 👉 LOCK IN YOUR DISCOUNT NOW: https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 📢 Stay Connected 📢 - Email: [email protected] - Website: https://www.tradingwithlarry.com #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]