Massive Leverage Is Setting Up a Crash
Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov warn hidden leverage across hedge funds and ETFs is setting up the next crash on Trading With Larry Live. Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov dig into JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's leverage warning on August 6, 2026, as the Nasdaq swings hundreds of points a day while...
Video Archive
Missed a live session? Explore the full video archive to catch up on insights, analysis, and timely opportunities.
Trading with Larry Live - 8/10/2026
📈️3 Ways to Trade Smarter With Larry 1. Watch Larry’s Show LIVE + Get Daily Emails (Free) Access Trading With Larry Live at 8:30 a.m. ET before the market opens, plus get premarket insights by email every weekday. GET LIVE ACCESS AND FREE INSIGHTS NOW: https://www.tradingwithlarry.com/ 2. Get Larry’s Trade Setups! Get Larry’s trade recommendations, exclusive Friday “Ask Me Anything” sessions, his step-by-step options guide, and more with his One Ticker Trader advisory service. GET LARRY’S TRADE SETUPS NOW: https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT836807&eid=MKT838283&assetId=AST368515&page=3 3. Subscribe on YouTube Like, subscribe, and hit the bell 🔔 to get Larry’s daily trading videos and bonus clips. https://www.youtube.com/@opportunistictrader?sub_confirmation=1 👤 About Larry Benedict Larry Benedict, a 40-year trading veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager, delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients through some of the worst market meltdowns. Now he helps everyday traders profit with hedge fund-level insights, strategies, and trade recommendations. 👤 About Eric Shamilov Eric Shamilov has over a decade of experience in trading and research. He began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman’s family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. More recently, he has been trading managed accounts for family offices and working alongside Larry Benedict. He studied at NYU’s Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. 👤 About Clint Brewer Clint Brewer brings 20 years of investment industry experience. That includes providing research for some of the largest institutions in the world, including Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. He managed more than $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines. Clint also holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in finance. 📢 Stay Connected 📢 - Email: [email protected] - Website: https://www.opportunistictrader.com/ #LarryBenedict #OneTickerTrader #Trading #StockMarket #Volatility #FedMoves #Premarket DISCLOSURE Investing always involves the risk of loss. You should never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results are no guarantee of any future result. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader. Opportunistic Trader is a publishing company and the indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products — including these videos — are provided for informational and educational purposes only. For this reason, we operate in accordance with the SEC's “publisher’s exclusion” from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a “bona fide” publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in these videos, in our newsletters and reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. If you have any questions or want more information about Opportunistic Trader and our policies, you can call our Member Services team Monday–Friday, 9 a.m.–5 p.m. ET at 888-206-3481 or email them at [email protected]
Biggest Grift In Market History
Larry Benedict says Citadel buying a blown-up hedge fund's book at a discount is the biggest grift in market history on Trading With Larry Live. Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov trace the August 2026 melt-up to one forced liquidation. A technology book Larry puts near $45 billion went to a single buyer at a discount after the fund was run out of its positions. Micron and Microsoft then ripped higher, and retail read the move as proof of a new bull market. KEY QUESTIONS Why does Larry Benedict call the August 2026 hedge fund blowup the biggest grift in market history? Larry says rival desks knew the fund's positions and ran the manager out. He was forced to sell at the dead low, at a price Larry says never traded. One firm took the whole block instead of the usual split across several desks. What caused the August 2026 stock market rally? Larry argues it was mostly technical, with Citadel absorbing the liquidated book while Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked up a trade deal Larry says does not exist. Eric Shamilov pushes back that retail buying and Palantir's 30% earnings pop turned it into a story about software coming back. Is the stock market setting up for a crash? Larry sees big similarities to August 1987, when volatility went insane into September and the market then crashed. He warns the Nasdaq now moves 1,000 points a day. Eric is neutral and is angling for a 36- to 48-hour consolidation before he looks at the short side. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: S&P 500 near 7,800 and making new highs; Nasdaq lagging and not confirming; Eric puts the VIX around 15; gold near $4,050 per ounce with interest rates near 4.30%; Micron down 50% at its low before the rebound; Millennium down over 2% for the month of July. CHAPTERS 0:00 Pre-Market Countdown 3:44 S&P 500 at New Highs, Nasdaq Lagging 4:59 The S&P 8,000 Call and the Risk-Reward Problem 7:27 Biggest Grift of All Time: The $45 Billion Block 9:09 Citadel Up 6% on the Fire-Sale Deal 10:09 Trump and Bessent Say a Deal Is Coming 13:50 When Retail Buys, Step Out of the Way 14:28 Larry's 1987 Comparison and the Crash Setup 16:51 Microsoft's Biggest Move Ever and the Software Is Back Story 20:38 The Letter Investors Ignored: No One Sent Cash 24:52 Melt-Up or Consolidation: Eric's 36-to-48-Hour Call 28:44 Why the VIX Closed Green 29:47 Trading Floor: PhD Next to a Degenerate Gambler 32:47 SpaceX Long-Term Outlook WATCH NEXT The Fund That May Have Broken the Nasdaq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGxL96SGdAE A Foreign Market Crash Could Be a Warning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSxkhBNxpyU Market Crash, Volatility & Warnings: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLXIIxWvJm9o #LarryBenedict #HedgeFundBlowup #StockMarketManipulation #MarketMeltUp ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/
Your Index Fund Is Riskier Than It Looks
Index funds now hide real concentration risk: Clint Brewer and Eric Shamilov read breadth and dispersion on Trading With Larry Live. On August 4, 2026, the S&P 500 was set to open at a record while the Nasdaq was still digging out of a July drawdown of more than 10%. Brewer explains why the top 10 QQQ holdings at around 50% of the index leave passive holders exposed, and why weekly S&P sector return spreads are the widest in 25 years. KEY QUESTIONS Why is owning an index fund riskier than it looks right now? Clint Brewer says the top 10 stocks in QQQ are around 50% of the index as of August 2026, so an index-tracking ETF hands you concentrated exposure instead of diversification. That is how the Nasdaq sat more than 10% below its high in July 2026 while the equal-weight S&P 500 made new highs. What does high return dispersion between S&P 500 sectors signal? Brewer cites Bloomberg data showing weeks with a 10%-plus return spread between S&P sectors at their highest level in 25 to 26 years, matching 2020, 2008 to 2009 and the internet bubble peak. He calls those years of transition, when markets rolled from bull to bear at the index level. Is the August 2026 AI rebound a buying opportunity? Neither host is buying it. Brewer says the Nasdaq and the AI trade are only rebounding from a very oversold level after Goldman Sachs' high-beta momentum basket posted its worst month in history in July 2026, and Shamilov says this is not a generational buying opportunity. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: S&P 500 opening at an all-time high; Nasdaq more than 10% below its July 2026 high; top 10 QQQ holdings at around 50% of the index; weekly S&P sector return spreads above 10% at 25-year highs; 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007; gold near $4,000 per ounce; S&P futures straddle at 25 points; GDP growth at 1.5%. CHAPTERS 0:00 Pre-Market Countdown 3:05 Shamilov and Brewer Host, the 12-Month Bull Market Call 4:49 S&P 500 Highs, Nasdaq Correction and Equal-Weight RSP 6:00 Return Dispersion Signals Years of Transition 7:10 Index Concentration Risk: Top 10 Are About Half of QQQ 8:34 Goldman Sachs EPS Growth Chart 11:36 GDP Final Sales, ISM Manufacturing and Fed Rate Pressure 13:46 S&P 500 Failed Breakdown and Continuation Triangle 17:57 High-Momentum Basket Record Drop, SanDisk Call Buying 22:36 Gold Stalling at $4,000 and Vistra as an AI Play 27:35 Mag Seven MAGS Flat, AI Supply and Demand Fissures 32:31 S&P Straddle and the Market's Expected Move WATCH NEXT S&P 500 Concentration Risk: What Market Breadth Is Warning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRTfdlun8Ro Why a Nasdaq Rally on Negative Breadth May Be a Warning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q48SfqlNx8 Market Crash, Volatility & Warnings: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLXIIxWvJm9o #LarryBenedict #IndexFunds #SP500 #MagnificentSeven ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/
How To Read A GDP Report Like A Trader
Most people read the headline GDP number and stop there. Clint Brewer explains which line inside the report actually tracks what demand is doing, and why the headline swings for reasons that have nothing to do with the consumer. KEY QUESTION What should a trader look at inside a GDP report? Clint names the line he goes to first and explains why it stays steady while the headline number jumps around. He then ties it to this week's manufacturing data, including the one component that leads and the one that signals inflation, and what the combination means for pressure on the Fed. Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKMdxf52EtI #GDP #FederalReserve #LarryBenedict ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/
How Cap-Weighted Index Funds Concentrate Your Risk
Buying an index fund feels like diversifying. Clint Brewer explains why that assumption breaks down when a handful of names control most of the fund, and what the widening gap between S&P 500 sectors has signaled in past markets. KEY QUESTION Why is an index fund riskier than it looks? Clint puts a number on how much of QQQ its largest holdings now control. It is higher than most passive investors would guess, and it explains how the Nasdaq can sit well below its high while the rest of the market makes new ones. He also points to three earlier periods that showed the same widening spread between S&P sectors, and says what each of those periods turned into. Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKMdxf52EtI #IndexFunds #SP500 #LarryBenedict ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/
The Fund That May Have Broken the Nasdaq
Larry Benedict says one blown-up $30 billion fund drove the Nasdaq's drawdown on Trading With Larry Live, and Eric Shamilov pushes back. Situational Awareness sold its roughly $30 billion equity book to Citadel overnight in early August 2026. Larry and Eric walk through why Micron, CoreWeave and Hynix fell 50% to 70%. They also cover how four-to-one leverage turned the unwind violent, and how much of that stock is still overhanging the tape. KEY QUESTIONS How much of the blown-up fund's stock is still sitting over the market? Larry puts the overhang near $35 billion of stock that still has to find buyers. That is why he expects the rotation to keep grinding on rather than resolving. What did Citadel actually pay for the $30 billion portfolio? The press reported a 10% discount to last sale. Larry calls that impossible for a correlated book this size when individual names were moving 20% in a day, and he expects the real discount was far deeper. Why is the S&P 500 grinding higher while the Nasdaq stalls? Larry calls the S&P a utility that money is hiding in. The Nasdaq cannot rally with Micron under sustained pressure, and he says that split can only last so long. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of August 2026: S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time high; a 30-point straddle priced for the session; USD/JPY near 156 yen after coordinated intervention; crude oil down about 7% on the session; Micron traded in the $700s before the unwind. CHAPTERS 0:00 Nasdaq Weakness Ahead of the Open 3:40 $30 Billion Blowup Takes Over the Macro Segment 4:02 Situational Awareness Sells Its Book to Citadel Overnight 5:29 Contrived, Rigged Trade: Stocks Up 10% and Down 10% 6:23 Leopold Aschenbrenner's Positions Were Known, Then He Was Run Out 7:37 Micron Is the Whole Nasdaq Right Now 9:44 Four-to-One Leverage and the Clearing Firms Behind It 10:17 Aschenbrenner's Anthropic Stake Nobody Would Take as Collateral 13:24 Nasdaq-S&P Spread Retraces the Entire April-May Move 15:26 Coordinated Yen Intervention and Japan's Treasury Holdings 18:36 Micron Could Go to 300 as Citadel Clears the Book 22:56 Larry: The Entire Nasdaq Drop Was One Fund 24:02 Iran Headlines Knock Oil Down 7% 29:37 Fed's Next Move: Warsh Wants Hikes, Committee Says No WATCH NEXT Stock Market Shorts: How Hedge Funds Manipulate Prices: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL6d7Z-Q9ng Nasdaq Volatility Warning: Micron, QQQ, EWY, and the Tech Trade Disconnect: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpZ7JQj25mE Market Crash, Volatility & Warnings: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLXIIxWvJm9o #LarryBenedict #Nasdaq #Micron #Citadel #StockMarket ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/
