The price of gold surged past $5,400 on heightened global tensions stemming from the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. The gain wasn’t quite enough to push gold to its all-time high north of $5,500 an ounce, but it does showcase the yellow metal’s role as a defensive play when investors get nervous.
And make no mistake, they are nervous, as artificial intelligence (“AI”) stocks have taken a huge breather for months. The volatility index – the VIX – is spiking to multimonth highs, signaling increasing agitation.
What was the relentless bull run in major tech stocks since 2023 has become a fading bid, even if the market as a whole is holding up. For the moment, leadership is moving to other sectors.
You can see it in the pullbacks in the major AI plays of the Magnificent 7 stocks from their 52-week highs over the past six months or so:
- Microsoft (MSFT): down 28%
- Meta Platforms (META): down 18%
- Amazon (AMZN): down 19%
- Alphabet (GOOG): down 13%
Many investors remain skeptical of AI’s economics, and Apple (AAPL) – which has mostly avoided major AI investments – has held up a bit better, down just 8% or so from its 52-week high.
But this fading confidence may be one of several reasons that gold is well positioned for this year. Interest may continue to move to other parts of the market – small-cap stocks, international stocks, gold – while fundamental reasons and investors’ nerves make gold look attractive, too.
Although gold (and silver) plunged at the end of January, gold in particular has made a nice rebound to within a few percent of its all-time high just weeks ago. And it looks like the party isn’t over yet… a new estimate for gold may help keep the precious metal rising through year-end.
JPMorgan Sees Gold at $6,300 By End of 2026
In late February, investment bank JPMorgan came out with its latest estimate of gold’s price by the end of 2026: $6,300 an ounce. That’s more than a 16% gain from its recent $5,400 price.
The bank’s report suggests that gold deserves a 5% to 10% risk premium due to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and follow-on attacks and general instability in the Middle East. “A near-term boost in geopolitical risk premium is clearly aligned with our bullish view on gold,” said the report.
That’s the safe-haven appeal of gold, making it a “turn to” asset when investors get jittery.
While this extra volatility can help boost prices in the short term, the gold market may settle down in the interim. Or, as the report says, these jumps “can be sharp but hard to sustain.”
So, while the bank’s year-end price target would be a solid gain across the remainder of the year, traders may have plenty of room to play gold’s volatility during that period.
Any pullbacks could be a great opportunity to “buy the dip” on the way to higher prices. Similarly, spikes may be a good time to pare a position, even if the overall direction for the year is higher.
And we’ve already seen exactly this scenario play out this year. Gold plummeted in late January after a strong run and saw arguably a too-fast ascent to start the year. But it came roaring back in February, as investors moved to other sectors and international tensions heated up.
How to Invest in Gold in 2026
Those looking to play gold are best served by doing it through the markets via exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) rather than buying bullion directly. The best gold ETFs give investors many ways to play a rise in gold, whether that’s through physical gold, established miners, or junior miners.
The advantage of stock ETFs is that you can get diversified exposure around a theme, reducing your risk exposure to any individual stock and allowing you to ride the tide lifting all boats.
The downside, however, is that funds will underperform the best individual gold stocks. That’s just simple math: Some stocks are above-average performers and some aren’t. To get those better returns, you need to find the stocks that are pulling up the fund’s average.
My colleague Steven Longenecker lays out his choice for the best gold stock to buy in 2026, and he offers his view on where gold prices could ultimately go… much higher.
Strong Fundamentals Still Driving Gold Higher in 2026
While Iran, Venezuela, or Cuba get the headlines today, key longer-term drivers of gold’s run higher remain in place. Those include fundamental factors such as the world’s central banks diversifying their reserves into gold and persistent fears around U.S. budget deficits and the dollar.
- Central banks have increased their gold purchases: Central banks around the world are buying more gold, according to the World Gold Council. From 2022 to 2024, central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons each year. While they bought only 860 tons in 2025, it’s still much higher than the 400 to 500 tons in the decade before the surge.
- Ongoing worries about U.S. deficits and debts: The U.S. is running unsustainably high budget deficits, leading over time to massive federal debt. The ratio of federal debt to gross domestic product is 121%, as of the third quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve. Deficits are projected to continue for years, and a recession would increase deficits further, so investors are trying to protect their money from debasement.
- Persistent inflation: Inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%, worsened by significant deficit spending. Interest-rate cuts from the Fed in late 2025 also helped stimulate the economy even as inflation sits above target.
- Worries about the U.S. dollar: Those substantial deficits and overhanging debt have led many investors to worry about the dollar’s status as a safe haven and reserve currency. The dollar has declined in value significantly since the start of 2025.
- Expectation of lower short-term interest rates: Investors expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates two times over the course of the year. These expectations could help give some extra stimulus to gold prices, too.
While the attack on Iran and other geopolitical events may be driving gold for now, those issues tend to fade over time, unless they have a strong tie to fundamentals, such as gold production.
Eventually, the market moves on from this month’s news, and a new scary story drives investors to worry. We may continue to see geopolitical concerns that keep fear front and center… benefiting gold in the short term even as longer-term factors continue to look strong.
Regards,
James Royal
Editor’s Note: Gold has already shattered records this year…
But Stansberry Senior Partner Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig says history shows it could be on the verge of its biggest bull run in over half a century.
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And Doc believes you MUST own shares of his top gold stock.
He says you could tenfold your money without touching a risky miner or a boring exchange-traded fund.
It’s the centerpiece of Doc’s full game plan for this wild market, with extraordinary upside potential.
Click here for the full details on this developing gold story.
