Trading with Larry Live

Rising bond yields could break a rally Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov call fake on Trading With Larry Live. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.35% and the UK 30-year gilt above 6% on October 7, 2026, Larry Benedict says the market keeps rotating into a new favorite every day while headlines spin the rate move. He and Eric Shamilov dig into the Treasury auction, bank stocks, gold, lottery-style options bets on Apple and Nvidia, and Ray Dalio's tech bubble warning. KEY QUESTIONS Why are bond yields rising in October 2026? Larry Benedict points to global rates rather than inflation or Iran, noting the UK 30-year gilt yield was at 6.03% on the morning of October 7, 2026, as a two-day run of US Treasury auctions got underway. Is gold's selloff over? Larry says gold is "finished" and expects it to go below $4,000 on this move after trading near $4,100 on October 7, 2026, while Eric Shamilov notes physical gold ETF holdings have kept rising through the drawdown. Do rising interest rates hurt bank stocks? Larry notes JPMorgan was up and Goldman Sachs roughly flat for the year as of October 7, 2026, even though the 10-year yield climbed from about 4.25% in January to about 5.35%. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of October 7, 2026 (per the show): 10-year Treasury yield about 5.35%; UK 30-year gilt yield 6.03%; gold near $4,100 per ounce; silver near $59 per ounce; S&P 500 futures down about 33 points pre-market. "The only time anyone will sell is if they're forced to sell." - Larry Benedict CHAPTERS 0:00 Bond selloff and the headline narrative game 1:26 Global rates: why Larry is watching UK gilts 2:07 Why the bond market is "the house" 3:53 Market bifurcation and a "fake" rally 6:15 Gold and silver selloff: is gold finished? 8:41 Gold, the dollar, and a tightening cycle 10:51 Apple rotation and zero-day call buying 13:34 Treasury auction: watching the 10-year yield 15:04 Mortgage rates, housing, and the shift to renting 16:26 Bank stocks vs. rates: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs 22:19 AI build-out, Blue Owl, and BDC stocks 24:26 Options lotto: Nvidia front-month options go to zero 27:14 Ray Dalio, forced selling, and lessons from 2008 WATCH NEXT Why No One Is Buying Our Bonds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty3pajFzcCI This Bond Chart Has Traders Rattled: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f39T19EMaQM Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #BondYields #StockMarketRally #OptionsTrading ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

The inflation line that could crack stock valuations: Eric Shamilov and Clint Brewer debate rising yields on Trading With Larry Live. On October 6, 2026, the S&P 500 was set to open above its prior record high after a sharp run-up in Treasury yields. Eric Shamilov and Clint Brewer weigh what is driving the move, why France's budget has revived sovereign-debt worries, why gold ETF holdings are rising while prices fall, and why chip-stock guidance may decide whether today's valuations hold up this earnings season. KEY QUESTIONS Why are stocks hitting record highs while interest rates rise? Eric Shamilov says it depends on why yields are climbing: since the 2000s, 10-year yield jumps of 75 basis points or more have mostly come with rising stocks, with 2022's inflation scare the main exception. On October 6, 2026, Clint Brewer said today's move is "both" inflation and growth. What inflation level hurts stock valuations? Clint Brewer says studies going back decades point to CPI above 4% as "the magic number" where the S&P 500's P/E ratio takes a material hit. On October 6, 2026, he noted inflation crossed that line in 2022, the year of the bear market, and has not been above it for some time. Is the stock market rally as broad as it looks? Not according to Clint Brewer, who said on October 6, 2026, that only about 25% of stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average in recent days, while the median S&P 500 stock had recently been 15% to 20% off its high. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of October 6, 2026: S&P 500 prior record high 7,799 points (per Eric); S&P 500 indicated up about 36 points before the open, near 7,810 (per Eric); November crude oil futures near $87.50 per barrel, down about $2 on the day (per Eric); S&P 500 forward P/E near 20 (per Eric). CHAPTERS 0:00 Rising Rates vs. S&P 500 Record Highs 0:55 50 Years of Yield Spikes and Stock Returns 2:29 Inflation or Growth: What Is Driving Yields? 4:00 The 4% CPI Line and the S&P 500 P/E Ratio 5:03 AI Earnings Optimism and a Narrow Index 7:16 Sovereign Debt Worries: France and Bond Markets 8:54 Crude Oil Slips and Emergency Reserve Releases 10:30 Dollar Reversal and a Possible Bond Bounce 12:46 Gold ETF Holdings Climb as Prices Fall 16:36 Earnings Season and the Equal-Weight S&P 500 19:14 Trailing vs. Forward P/E and Chip Guidance 22:30 Copper Miners Setting Up for a Breakout 24:18 PCE, Weak Payrolls and Odds of an October Fed Hike 25:28 S&P 500 Zero-Day Options: Expecting a Range-Bound Day WATCH NEXT There Are Two Kinds Of Inflation, And Only One Is Driving Rates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B-xLQWxJWQ S&P 500 Concentration Risk: What Market Breadth Is Warning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRTfdlun8Ro Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #Inflation #InterestRates #CPI ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Why stocks are ignoring a bond market warning: Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov debate surging Treasury yields on Trading With Larry Live. On October 5, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to a new high of the move near 5.3% while the S&P 500 held firm. Larry Benedict asks how stocks can shrug off a roughly 60-basis-point climb in yields. Eric Shamilov argues rates are already biting in rate-sensitive stocks, the euro, the Swiss franc, and gold, even as the AI trade props up the index. KEY QUESTIONS Why aren't stocks falling as Treasury yields rise? Larry Benedict says the market has "an insatiable appetite to be bought," with computer-driven programs set only to buy, and on October 5, 2026, he pointed to programs that buy the market "every hour on the hour." Is the stock market rally as broad as it looks? Not according to Larry, who said on October 5, 2026, that a handful of AI names are carrying the index while the market is "making more new lows than new highs." Eric Shamilov adds that many of those lows are rate-sensitive stocks. Why do zero-day options traders keep losing? Larry says 0DTE call buying is at "epic levels," driven mostly by traders who don't understand pricing or volatility. On October 5, 2026, he noted they have been losing for weeks because the stock rises but the out-of-the-money call doesn't finish in the money. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of October 5, 2026: 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, up from about 4.7% (per Larry); S&P 500 cash set to open near 7,715 (per Eric); front-month crude oil near $90 per barrel, down from $107 last month (per Larry); Japan 10-year government bond yield near 3.1% (per Larry). "There is no they. There is no person. This is all computers." - Larry Benedict CHAPTERS 0:00 Bond Yields Hit New Highs as Stocks Shrug 1:01 Nasdaq Reversal: How Big a Move Really Matters 2:41 Jobs Report, 30-Year Yield and Fed Rate-Hike Odds 4:17 AI Trade vs. Interest Rates: A Bifurcated Market 6:57 Zero-Day Options Gambling at Epic Levels 9:29 Forex Over Stocks: Euro and the U.S.-Europe Rate Gap 13:21 S&P 500 Straddle and the Iron Condor Setup 14:12 Oil Supply Debate: Long vs. Short Crude 18:20 52-Week Lows in Rate-Sensitive Stocks 19:50 Weak Jobs Report: Bad News Is Good News Again 20:59 Truth Social Rallies and Hourly Buy Programs 24:20 Japan Bond Yields and the Gold Debasement Debate 27:50 Computers, Not People: AI Agents Trading the Market 29:21 Four Stocks vs. More New Lows Than New Highs WATCH NEXT This Bond Chart Has Traders Rattled: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f39T19EMaQM When Algorithms Control Every Market Move: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7EYHiNEVAY Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #BondYields #TreasuryYields #StockMarket ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

AI spending is competing for capital and helping push Treasury yields higher, Clint Brewer says on Trading With Larry Live. On October 1, 2026, Clint Brewer argues Treasury yields are under attack from three directions at once: inflation, a strong economy, and competition for capital from AI borrowing. Eric Shamilov flags the S&P 500 futures' five-, 21-, and 50-day moving averages bunched tightly together ahead of Friday's payrolls report. KEY QUESTIONS Is AI spending pushing Treasury yields higher? Clint Brewer points to a global chart comparing five-year corporate capital-spending growth to 10-year government bond yields; he says the line turned sharply higher starting in 2022, right after ChatGPT's launch, and ties today's elevated Treasury yields partly to hyperscalers borrowing to fund AI infrastructure. Why did a PCE methodology change distort August's inflation reading? Clint Brewer says a revision to how portfolio management, computer software, and legal services are counted cut July's PCE reading by a cumulative 0.3%, which made August's inflation print look better by comparison, even as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge still shows rising price pressure underneath. Is the median S&P 500 stock already in a bear market? Clint Brewer says the median S&P 500 stock trades an estimated 15% to 20% below its 52-week high and is "pretty much going into bear market," while the 10 largest companies make up close to 40% of the index. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of October 1, 2026: odds of a Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting near 36% after the PCE report, versus 84% by the following meeting. CHAPTERS 0:00 ES Moving-Average Compression And Micron Earnings 5:05 PCE Methodology Change: Software, Legal, Portfolio Management 8:07 Core PCE's Widening Inflation Tails 10:05 AI Capex Vs. Treasury Yields: Competition For Capital 13:18 The Median S&P 500 Stock Nears A Bear Market 14:25 Clint's TLT Calls And Euro Trade Watch 18:25 Fed Rate-Hike Odds Sink To 36% After PCE 19:02 Rate Differentials Point To A Weaker Dollar 24:37 Eric's Iron Condor Positions 28:28 Treasury Secretary Bessent's Fading Playbook 31:51 Payrolls Tomorrow, Larry's Q&A Next WATCH NEXT There Are Two Kinds Of Inflation, And Only One Is Driving Rates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B-xLQWxJWQ Why No One Is Buying Our Bonds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty3pajFzcCI Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #TreasuryYields #AICapex #PCEInflation #InterestRates ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov warn against handing your brokerage account to an AI agent you know nothing about, on Trading With Larry Live. On September 30, 2026, Larry Benedict discloses a 135/125 in-the-money put spread on Robinhood shares, which rose 5% on 24-hour trading news. The hosts warn that traders may soon hand real brokerage accounts over to AI agents they know nothing about. The 30-year Treasury yield is also back near 5.6%. KEY QUESTIONS What happens when an AI agent runs your brokerage account? Larry Benedict says the companies building AI agents are "freaked out that the agent can go crazy," and Eric Shamilov warns that means handing your account to an AI agent you know nothing about, as of September 30, 2026. Why is Robinhood pushing 24-hour, "tokenized" trading? On September 30, 2026, Robinhood shares rose 5% on the news, but Larry Benedict says nobody cares about the tokenization angle: "They just want to gamble." Why are 30-year Treasury yields holding above 5%? Larry Benedict says the 30-year Treasury yield is back near 5.6% as of September 30, 2026, even as Eric Shamilov notes hedge funds have reportedly been buying bonds for the past couple of years and "getting whacked" on the trade. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of September 30, 2026: 30-year Treasury yield near 5.6%; Robinhood shares +5% on 24-hour trading news; oil back above $90/barrel. CHAPTERS 0:00 PCE and GDP: Why the Numbers Look Better But Bonds Didn't Move 1:49 S&P 500 Futures: Why a 40-Point Move Matters 2:45 Zero-DTE Options Are Running the Stock Market 3:18 Robinhood's 24-Hour "Tokenized" Trading Push 4:33 What Happens When You Hand an AI Agent Your Account 5:09 Reading the ES Moving Averages Under Pressure 5:47 How the 30-Year Treasury Reacted to the PCE Data 7:08 Bonds, Stocks, and the Dying 60/40 Portfolio 8:22 Using an AI Scanner to Trade 0DTE Options 13:16 Why Every Fed Meeting Is Now a Live Event 22:03 Why the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Just Got Tapped 27:44 Hedge Funds That Aren't Actually Hedged 29:56 Larry's Iron Condor Plan WATCH NEXT Bitcoin's Mass Exodus and the 0DTE Casino Market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCJcf5zvxQA There's Gonna Be a Rug Pull: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJMhPCElNXM Trading Psychology & Risk Control: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcXx0FNLqVAI #LarryBenedict #AITrading #Robinhood #HedgeFunds #0DTE ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

The Nvidia options frenzy burned hundreds of millions in hours, and Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov break it down on Trading With Larry Live. On the September 29, 2026 episode of Trading With Larry Live, Larry Benedict and Eric Shamilov break down a wild session in Nvidia options. Eric explains his rule to always fade the headline. Larry admits his own trading was rough that day, and says his best product, S&P Trader, is down on the year after a track record that has never had a losing year. KEY QUESTIONS How did Nvidia options burn hundreds of millions of dollars in a single session? Larry Benedict says that on September 28, 2026, Nvidia traded about 1.4 million option contracts across three strikes that expired worthless, with VWAP pricing between $2 and $4, evaporating hundreds of millions of dollars in a couple of hours. How did Larry Benedict's own trading go on September 28, 2026? Despite ending up okay, Larry admits he traded horrendously that day, and says 75 to 80 percent of it was luck. Why does Eric Shamilov say to always look to fade the headline? Eric argues the right move is to always look to fade the headline, treating market-moving news as either fake or already known. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of September 29, 2026: Nvidia's front-month option volume at 4.2 million contracts on September 28; about 1.4 million of those Nvidia contracts across three strikes expired worthless; Meta traded 1 million contracts across three strikes the prior Monday; Bitcoin at $84,000; a $150 billion Nvidia buyback, per Eric Shamilov. CHAPTERS 0:00 Bonds Barely Budge: Five, Six Ticks 1:26 Meta And Nvidia's Options Explosion 2:07 Millions Evaporate In Hours: Nvidia's Options Massacre 2:47 Larry's 42 Years In Options, And Who His Service Can Help 3:45 Nvidia's $150 Billion Buyback And Jensen's Cheerleading 4:10 Larry's "Blipping" Market: A Deal Every Minute 7:50 Larry's Horrendous (But Lucky) Trading Day 11:13 S&P Trader: Down On The Year, Chasing A Miracle 13:51 Pakistan, Qatar, Iran: Who Makes The Deal 17:49 Eric's Rule: Fade The Headline 21:56 AI Guardrails And Who They're Really Protecting 28:22 Bitcoin Back To $84,000 (And Still Half The Size Of Nvidia) WATCH NEXT Jane Street's Reported $15B Hit: Market Edge, Position Risk, and Options Flow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy7YcLrn4kY Real Stops Could Save Your Account: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bnCx9RbMK4 Options Trading Lessons: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPEzACW8suXI #LarryBenedict #NvidiaOptions #OptionsTrading #RiggedMarket ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/