Stansberry Research

Monday Afternoon Market Recap

Stansberry NewsWire

Afternoon Market Recap:

U.S. equity markets finished Monday mixed.

Domestic equity markets finished mostly higher after hawkish-leaning Fed-speak continued to maintain its stance of higher interest rates with no indication of pausing anytime soon. Economists continue to note risks around a Federal Reserve policy mistake while investors continue to flag Fed pushback against looser financial conditions. However, there's still a lot of traction for a bullish narrative driven by "soft landing" hopes with signs of disinflation leading the way. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the lowest one year inflation expectations since July 2021. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index rose slightly from last month, but still registered its largest annual decline in history (negative 14.9%). Looking forward, investors are playing a waiting game ahead of Consumer Price Index on Thursday and Michigan inflation expectations and bank earnings on Friday.

Within the S&P 500 Index, six of the 11 sectors finished lower...

European markets finished higher. Eurozone markets finished higher with investor morale rising for the third straight month, according to the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for January. German industrial production rebounded in November, but a Reuters report foreshadowed a gloomy 2023 with 40% of German companies expecting a contraction in overall output. Eurostat said the eurozone unemployment rate in November was 6.5% – the same as October – and in line with consensus forecasts. Investors reacted cautiously. Fears are growing that a tight labor market and surging wage growth projections would pose a risk for further rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

Asian markets finished higher. Markets ended mostly higher as follow-through effects from Friday's U.S. rally gained momentum. The big story continues to follow China, adding to its economic support measures for the property market and larger economy. The top 100 major developers reported 33% annual growth in financing for December as Beijing relaxed restrictions nationwide. Additionally, China reported an influx of travelers after border crossing restrictions eased on Sunday. Following the extended fiscal support from Beijing, major cities are forecasting annual growth targets north of 5% for the year. Elsewhere, Taiwan's exports decline continues as rising interest rates effects on global demand keeps hitting the nation hard. And in an interview Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government and Bank of Japan must discuss its relationship in economic policy. This comes after his announcement of a new governor in April.

(Narratives written as of local market close.)

Risk:

VIX +3.98%

Bitcoin +1.25%

Ethereum +3.70%

Growth:        

WTI crude +1.53%

Brent crude +1.55%

Natural gas +5.31%

Copper +2.53%

Safety:

Gold +0.33%

Silver -0.90%

Tomorrow, we're on the lookout for French industrial production data and the December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Have a great evening!

C. Scott Garliss and Kevin Sanford