Stansberry Research

Monday Afternoon Market Recap

C. Scott GarlissStansberry NewsWire

Monday Afternoon Market Recap:

U.S. equity markets finished higher.

Economic Indicators

  • The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index for December was weaker than expected. It showed domestic growth continues to soften, easing the case for more Fed rate hikes.

Macro Commentary

  • Investors were increasingly optimistic that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of the rate-hike cycle. Governor Christopher Waller, one of the most vocal about raising rates, said late Friday that he would like to see a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. This followed recent commentary from Vice Chair Lael Brainard that the central bank is getting close to pausing. An end to rate hikes will weigh on the dollar, supporting the outlook for risk assets like stocks.

Within the S&P 500 Index, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher...

Top Performers: Information Technology +2.28%, Communication Services +1.77%, and Consumer Discretionary +1.57%

Bottom Performers: Real Estate +0.23%, Utilities +0.04%, and Energy -0.21%

European equity markets finished higher.

Economic Indicators

  • The European Commission's preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January was weaker than expected but rebounded compared to December. Households were increasingly optimistic about the region avoiding a recession due to declining inflation.

Macro Commentary

  • The International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said global growth may not prove as weak as they originally anticipated. Both groups cited rapidly decelerating inflation growth. In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron and German President Olaf Scholz called for more corporate investment to compete with the U.S. and China, supporting the spending outlook.

Asian equity markets finished higher.

Economic Indicators

  • None

Macro Commentary

  • Asian markets rallied on regional economic growth optimism. Investors anticipate tourists from China, who have been under heavy COVID-19 restrictions for three years, will start to travel more as infections recede. According to the United Nations, Chinese tourists made up roughly 20% of global travel demand prior to the pandemic. Considering many of their destinations have tended to focus on Asia, the region is expected to benefit the most.

(Narratives written as of local market close.)

Asset Snapshot

Risk:

VIX -0.60%

Bitcoin +2.96%

Ethereum -0.28%

Growth:           

WTI crude -0.01%

Brent crude +0.54%

Natural gas +8.66%

Copper +0.15%

Safety:

Gold +0.25%

Silver -2.09%

What we're paying attention to this week...

U.S.

  • S&P Global U.S. Preliminary Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI for January (Tuesday)
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Tuesday)
  • Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index for December (Thursday)
  • GDP for Q4 (Thursday)
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for January (Thursday)
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures for December (Friday)

Europe

  • Eurozone – Consumer Confidence Indicator for January (Monday)
  • Eurozone/U.K. – S&P Global Preliminary Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI for January (Tuesday)
  • K. – PPI for December (Wednesday)
  • K. – CBI Distributive Trades Survey for January (Thursday)
  • France – Consumer Confidence Survey for January (Friday)

Asia

  • China – Markets Closed for Lunar New Year Holiday (Monday-Friday)
  • Japan – Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for January (Tuesday)
  • Japan – CPI for January (Friday)

Have a great evening!

C. Scott Garliss and Kevin Sanford