Stansberry Research

Friday Afternoon Market Recap

Stansberry NewsWire

Friday Afternoon Market Recap:

U.S. equity markets finished higher.

Economic Indicators

  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose in January, marking its second straight monthly gain. One-year inflation expectations fell to their lowest level since April

Macro Commentary

  • Investors continued to digest this week's positive momentum for slowing inflation, a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, and a declining dollar.
  • Major U.S. banks provided a lackluster start to earnings season on Friday, fueling concerns that softer net interest income guidance and rising deposit rates could hamper yearly earnings.
  • Fed speak remained largely hawkish, with officials remaining steadfast to a terminal rate above 5%, despite some calls for a slowdown to 25-basis-point rate hikes starting in February.

Within the S&P 500 Index, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher...

European equity markets finished higher.

Economic Indicators

  • The U.K.'s Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") grew 0.1% in November, beating the expectations for a contraction. These figures boosted optimism that the U.K. economy avoided a fourth-quarter recession.
  • Germany's preliminary 2022 GDP reading came in at 1.9% for the year.
  • Eurozone's industrial output for November was better than expected, with a 1.0% month-over-month increase compared with the 0.5% estimate, raising hopes that a regional economic slowdown may not be as severe in 2023.

Macro Commentary

  • Following a week of better-than-expected economic news in the region, support grew for more monetary-policy tightening from the European Central Bank.

Asian equity markets finished mixed.

Economic Indicators

  • The Bank of Korea hiked its base rate by 25 basis points, raising its seven-day repo rate to 3.50%.
  • China's exports fell 9.9% in December – the fastest annual decline since February 2020.

Macro Commentary

  • Next week, investors are looking to the release of China's fourth-quarter GDP data, which is expected to bring 2022's annual GDP growth rate to 2.8%.
  • China's 2023 GDP forecasts are projected to rebound to 4.9% in 2023 following stimulus supports and the country's departure from strict pandemic policies.
  • The People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng said the central bank must strike a balance with its monetary stimulus to ensure economic growth and price stability.

(Narratives written as of local market close.)

Asset Snapshot

What we're paying attention to next week...

U.S.

  • Empire State Manufacturing Index for January (T)
  • PPI for December (W)
  • NAHB Housing Market Index for January (W)
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January (Th)

Europe

  • U.K. – Unemployment Rate for November (T)
  • Germany – ZEW Financial Market Survey for January (T)
  • U.K. – CPI, PPI for December (W)
  • Germany – PPI for December (F)

Asia

  • Japan – PPI for December (M)
  • China – GDP for Q4 (T)
  • Bank of Japan Policy Decision (W)
  • China – One- and Five-Year Loan Prime Rates (F)
  • Japan – CPI for December (F)

(Day of week in parentheses.)

Have a great weekend!

C. Scott Garliss and Kevin Sanford