Stansberry Research

Tuesday Morning Market Preview, Calendars

C. Scott GarlissStansberry NewsWire

Morning Market Preview:

S&P futures are higher, up 22 to 23 points, as…

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is scheduled to release its manufacturing index for December, with investors paying close attention to prices paid and received as an inflation signal.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing will work to rebuild relations with the U.S. next year and get the relationship back on the “right course.”
  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index data for October is expected to show the cost of a home purchase contracted by 0.8% compared to September.
  • Fed fund futures forecast interest rates will peak between 4.75% and 5% in May 2023 compared to the mid-November expectation of 5% to 5.25%, implying two rate hikes next year.

European markets rose as…

  • European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it will continue raising interest rates in half-point increments before reaching peak yields in mid-summer.
  • European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said real interest rates are still very low and must move higher to bring inflation growth back to the 2% target.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready to negotiate in talks to end the war in Ukraine but not under terms acceptable to the opposition.
  • Spain’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) figures for December are due out on Friday with growth expected to slow to 6.1% compared to November’s 6.8% increase.

Asian markets gained as…

  • China’s National Health Commission said it would soon stop requiring inbound travelers to quarantine, boosting the outlook for the flow of trade goods and the economy.
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda insisted the recent increase in its 10-year sovereign bond yield target is not meant to exit easy-money monetary policies but to prolong them.
  • Japanese retail sales data for November unexpectedly contracted as rising prices meant households spent less on clothing and other types of apparel.
  • Major Chinese cities, including Zhengzhou and Beijing, said they’ve already seen new COVID infections hit 1 million per day and expect the numbers to peak in mid-January.

And ahead of…

  • Wholesale Inventories for November (8:30 a.m.)
  • FHFA Home Price Index for October (9 a.m.)
  • S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Index for October (9 a.m.)
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for December (10:30 a.m.)

Pre-Market Levels:

S&P +0.59%

Asia:

Japan's Nikkei +0.81%, Japan's TOPIX +0.64%, China's Shanghai Composite +1.63%, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed, South Korea's KOSPI +0.83%, Taiwan's TSE +0.40%

Europe:

EuroStoxx 50 +0.79%, UK FTSE closed, German DAX +0.72%, French CAC +0.98%, Italian MIB +0.25%, Spanish IBEX +0.28%

Currencies:

Dollar -0.19%, Japanese Yen +0.23%, Euro +0.30%, British Pound -0.13%, Swiss Franc -0.43%, Chinese Yuan -0.34%

Risk:

VIX +4.55%

Bitcoin +0.06%

Ethereum -0.31%

Growth:

WTI Crude +0.45%

Brent Crude +0.60%

Nat Gas +1.30%

Copper +2.76%

Safety:

Gold +0.64%

Silver +1.67%

Sovereign Bonds:

U.S. Treasury 10-yr yield +2.4bps at 3.77%

U.S. Treasury 2-yr yield +2.7bps at 4.35%

German 10-yr yield +10.3bps at 2.50%

French 10-yr yield +10.4bps at 3.03%

Italian 10-yr yield +9.2bps at 4.58%

Japanese 10-yr yield +8.8bps at 0.46%

Earnings:

None

Calendar:

China – Industrial Profits for November
Japan – Unemployment Rate for November

Japan – Retail Sales for November
Japan – Housing Starts for November
South Korea – Consumer Confidence for December
France – Registered Job Seekers for November (6 a.m.)
Wholesale Inventories for November (8:30 a.m.)
FHFA Home Price Index for October (9 a.m.)
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Index for October (9 a.m.)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for December (10:30 a.m.)